Questions and Answers


Question 26

Can you explain with your evaluation method why these two hands make a game?

S A K Q x x Table S x x x
H A K Q x x H x x x
D x x D x x x x
C x C x x x

The Losing Trick Count is saying 15 losers between the two hands, no game. With the adjustment for controls there are 14.5 losers.

Thanks in advance.
Boris


Answer

That the Losing Trick Count (LTC) comes up with the wrong answer on such a simple hand suggests there is a flaw with the method. Still, LTC is one of the best method of evaluating there is.
   Our method gets to the correct result. If the major suits are distributed 3-2, East-West have 'half the deck in working points' and will lose as many tricks as their SST. Since SST is 3, our estimation is ten tricks, which obviously is correct.
   If one of the majors is 4-1 (or 5-0), we might take less than ten tricks. Then, the formula fails, since the estimation doesn't cater to 'bad luck'.


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